How to Make Decisions in an Uncertain World: The Dr Alban Strategy

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There is no doubt that we are in turbulent economic waters. As a researcher who studies uncertainty, it is clear that uncertainty creates anxiety, discouragement, and distress as leaders have to cut projects, anticipate changes, and the real human cost of layoffs or redundancies. How can we make it through? What ground do we have to stand on?

In a recent post I spoke about how to re-charge our energy to move forward, but how do we move beyond emotions to the reality of making plans? One way to overcome these challenges is to base uncertain decisions on future certainties, or what Bjarne Lie, founder of Verdane Capital calls the Dr. Alban strategy!

What is the Dr. Alban strategy? Dr. Alban is a Swedish rapper who, before going full-time into music, finished dental school so that he would have something to fall back on if a career as a rapper doesn't work out. Verdane, Bjarne Lie's investment fund focused on helping industry move to the next level of growth, makes investments in an uncertain world, employs a similar strategy. "In an uncertain world, we look for investments that have a baseline of certainty in them, based on future needs of society, so there is always a baseline of decent performance if the world doesn't work out as expected." For example, as the world goes more digital, more batteries will always be needed, so investments in these technologies will be critical.

Likewise, Reynir Indahl, one of the world's most successful sustainability investors, leverages this logic to generate high returns making new sustainability investments. "We live in a world that is fundamentally uncertain," says Indahl. "How do you act as an investor? In an uncertain world there are some certainties." Among those, he lists a growing and aging global population that will need more food and better healthcare; resource depletion that demands better approaches to waste management and recycling, and the certainty that we must augment our energy sources.

Admittedly Lie and Indahl are explaining how they make big investments. How can the Dr. Alban strategy help individuals? One tool we spoke about in The Upside of Uncertainty, is having a portfolio of personal real options. This was a term we picked up from Nobel Prize winner Ben Feringa. As he mentors students going into the uncertain world of science, he advises, "If you have only one foot to stand on you will ride it all the way to the bitter end because you don't want to fail, even if it means you will ultimately fail. Instead, you want to have multiple pathways, multiple projects, and in a way get some certainty out of the portfolio of uncertainties. I usually advise my students to have at least one risky project and one less risky project so you have the confidence that at least something will work out."

When facing economic uncertainty, we can learn from this investment approach. By identifying areas of future certainty—needs that will persist regardless of economic conditions—we can make more confident decisions even in turbulent times. Whether you're an investor, a business leader, or an individual planning your career, the Dr. Alban strategy offers a practical framework: always maintain options that build on future certainties while pursuing your more uncertain, yet potentially rewarding ventures.